Publications
Journal Articles
- Muratori, U., Juarros, P., & Valderrama, D. (2026). Heterogeneous Purchases, Heterogeneous Multipliers. IMF Economic Review.
@article{Muratori2026, title = {Heterogeneous Purchases, Heterogeneous Multipliers}, author = {Muratori, Umberto and Juarros, Pedro and Valderrama, Daniel}, journal = {IMF Economic Review}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, year = {2026}, publisher = {}, doi = {10.1057/s41308-026-00322-4}, file = {MJV_SpendingComposition.pdf}, replication = {https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/248189/version/V1/view}, data = {} }Do the effects of local fiscal multipliers vary based on the type of government purchases? We find that government purchases of services generate larger increases in local employment, labor income, and output than purchases of goods. This variation stems from key factors: differences in sectoral characteristics ̶ particularly markups ̶between good ̶ producing and service-producing industries; distinct impacts on business turnover and productivity; and greater tradeability of goods, which amplifies spillover effects beyond the local area. Our results highlight important mechanisms shaping the effectiveness of fiscal policy across spending categories.
- Muratori, U. (2015). Contagion in the Euro area sovereign bond market. Social Sciences, 4(1), 66–82.
@article{Muratori2015, title = {Contagion in the Euro area sovereign bond market}, author = {Muratori, Umberto}, journal = {Social Sciences}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {66--82}, year = {2015}, publisher = {MDPI}, doi = {10.3390/socsci4010066}, file = {M_Contagion.pdf} }In the last half-decade the European Monetary Union (EMU) has experienced a growing financial instability culminating with an extended sovereign debt crisis that has hit mostly the peripheral countries. Besides weak macroeconomic fundamentals, contagion phenomena in the government bond market damaged the countries more exposed to the financial stress. In this paper, the author investigates the issue of contagion applying to the financial field an innovative econometric technique, i.e., panel spatial regression. The paper documents: (i) the presence of contagion, in particular among peripheral countries; (ii) the changes in the magnitude of contagion in the different phases of the debt crisis; and (iii) the relevance of policy interventions in reducing the contagion effect in the EMU.
Working Papers
- Muratori, U. (2021). Knowledge Diffusion, Markups, and Cohorts of Firms.
@unpublished{Muratori2021, author = {Muratori, Umberto}, title = {Knowledge Diffusion, Markups, and Cohorts of Firms}, year = {2021}, file = {M_CohortMarkups.pdf} }This paper investigates the differences in markups between and within cohorts of US firms. I document substantial between-cohort differences and a relatively flat profile within cohorts. Knowledge creation and diffusion explain these patterns. The between-cohorts pattern is associated with improvements in innovation quality, and the within-cohort pattern is due to the interaction of innovation and knowledge diffusion. I build an endogenous growth model of creative destruction augmented with knowledge diffusion. I find knowledge diffuses 38% faster in 2010 than in 1980, and the changes in the innovation step size and intensity of knowledge diffusion have increased welfare by 0.29%.
- Kugler, A. D., Muratori, U., & Farooq, A. (2020). Do unemployment insurance benefits improve match and employer quality? Evidence from recent us recessions. NBER Working Paper 27574.
@unpublished{Kugler2020, title = {Do unemployment insurance benefits improve match and employer quality? Evidence from recent us recessions}, author = {Kugler, Adriana D and Muratori, Umberto and Farooq, Ammar}, institution = {NBER Working Paper 27574}, year = {2020}, file = {KMF_UIBenefit.pdf} }Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits have a moral hazard effect and a liquidity effect, with both generating increases in unemployment spells but the latter increasing wages due to the ability to find better matches or better jobs. Previous papers, however, find mixed evidence on the impact of UI on wages. In this paper, we re-examine the effect of UI on wages in the U.S. and present novel evidence using LEHD data to examine the channels through which UI increases earnings, including: (1) the quality of the match, (2) positive sorting of employers and employees, and (3) the quality of the employer. We find that the increased UI generosity in the U.S. increased wages by both increasing the quality of the match as well as the quality of the job obtained after the unemployment spell, though there is less evidence of improved sorting. Consistent with improvements in match and employer quality, we also find that the likelihood of remaining on the job increases with UI generosity. Consistent with a liquidity effect on search, we also find that the effects on the quality of the match are larger for those who are more likely to be liquidity constrained, including women, minorities, and the less-educated.
- Izquierdo, A., Llopis, J., Muratori, U., & Ruiz, J. J. (2016). In search of larger per capita incomes: How to prioritize across productivity determinants? IDB Working Paper Series 680.
@unpublished{Izquierdo2016, title = {In search of larger per capita incomes: How to prioritize across productivity determinants?}, author = {Izquierdo, Alejandro and Llopis, Jimena and Muratori, Umberto and Ruiz, Jos{\'e} Juan}, year = {2016}, institution = {IDB Working Paper Series 680}, file = {ILMR_PPI.pdf} }This study is a first contribution to prioritization across productivity determinant capabilities that attempts to obtain the equivalent of a “shadow price” for each of these capabilities by estimating their impact on the success a country may have in reaching higher income per capita groups. The prioritization of these determinants—spanning different sectors—seems to be specific to the income per capita group to which a country belongs. Moreover, empirical estimates reveal that interactions among sectors matter for increasing the probability of climbing up the income-per-capita ladder, reflecting the existence of complementarities across sectors, thus indicating that the joint improvement of some of them may be necessary before effects are noticeable. Results also indicate that the identification of priorities by looking at the impact that sectors have on increasing the likelihood of advancing to a better income per capita group may or may not coincide with the size of sector gaps typically used for the determination of priorities, as larger gaps do not necessarily capture the relevance of sectoral restrictions and their interactions.